Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems
نویسنده
چکیده
Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, policy-makers must decide about some EWSs' elements, such as the sensitivity of the forecasts. Third, EWSs' performance is increased by taking a logit model, shorter samples and a regional approach. Fourth, the finding of contagion may motivate policy to shield its economy against inefficient international financial markets. JEL-Classification: F33, F37, F31
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(1) The author gratefully acknowledges valuable comments from five reviewers, Keith Beven, Jim Hall, Irina Krasovskaia, Edmund Penning-Rowsell, and Bellie Sivakumar. They helped the author to improve and enrich the chapter. (2) The work on this chapter was carried out within the WATCH (Water and Global Change) Integrated Project of the European Union's 6th Framework Programme. Floods are an inc...
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